The FINAL 2020 Presidential Projection
With so many wild cards, a steady repeat of past cycles is nearly impossible.
I remember when I first started tracking polling data and historical trends, back in 2000. For the first four Presidential cycles, I never missed on more than four states (two in 2000*, three in 2004, one in 2008, four in 2012). Then came the beginning of a massive restructuring of American politics and even the greatest psephologists in political data were left baffled — I missed many states in 2016.
Even though the polls have been incredibly steady, everyone is left second guessing what seems so obvious. There are only 4 states have changed leads in the last 6 months (Georgia, Texas, Iowa, and Ohio). Every other battleground state has maintain a remarkably steady lead, and many of them haven’t moved more than a couple of points.
Most prognosticators like to talk to about tipping point states and the snake charts that lead to the closest states. While I will also post a final electoral map, I have always seen a Presidential race much like a sporting event. It only comes down to the final few plays, because the strategy you bank in the beginning of the game. So, I’m going to draw a parallel and run through the safest states, my expected margin of victory, as if it were a football game.
Between Washington, D.C., Nebraska’s split vote, and Maine’s split vote, we have 56 jurisdictions that award electoral votes. This not only breaks down nicely into four quarters of 14, but it breaks pretty nicely between the 4 major projection categories: Solid, Likely, Lean, and Tilt (which some variation).
With election anxiety at an all time high, let’s strap on some pads and have some fun.
FIRST QUARTER
There are a few obvious highlights of note here. First, these are all states with a probable margin of victory well above 25%. When you are able to beat your opponent in a state 65–35, you don’t need to spend a dime to do so. Second, the Democrats have spent a generation being able to bank close to 45% of the needed electoral votes without spending a single penny. On the flip side, Trump has less than 10% of the needed electoral votes banked with these types of states.
These states all have a less than 1% chance of flipping to the underdog. From this standpoint, in having a 96-vote advance in the Electoral College, it would seem that Biden is cruising to an easy victory. But much like on gameday, while a game can’t be won in the first quarter, it certainly can be lost.
SECOND QUARTER
Mostly small states make up the Safe-Likely group between 15–25%. Biden banks a few important big states in New Jersey, Washington, and Illinois. Trump is able to counter with Tennessee, Louisiana, and Albama. These states also have only a 1–3% chance of flipping to the underdog.
At halftime (28 out of 56 jurisdictions), Trump is still trailing by 49 votes from where Biden was at the quarter mark. However, Biden has won 15 to Trump’s 13 of these 28 contests, but has 2.6x the number of Electoral Votes. This is what happens when half of the country lives in 146 counties out of over 3,000 counties in America.
THIRD QUARTER
This is where it starts to get interesting because we one important 2020 swing state already off the board in the Lean-Likely category. Minnesota was supposed to be the most likely Clinton state for Trump to expand his map. And there is a good chance that Biden clears a 10% victory in that Midwestern state. If that result holds, it would likely be a harbinger of what will come in the Rust Belt.
New Hampshire was the other state that Biden and the Democrats were going to need to defend. But it just hasn’t come to pass and neither of these states were every in danger throughout the cycle.
This puts Biden at 84% of what he needs with Trump still sitting at45% — the same mark that that Biden was at in the first quarter.
FOURTH QUARTER
With 190 Electoral Votes still up for grabs, Trump would need almost 80% of the remaining. With Michigan, Wisconsin, and Nevada looking pretty likely for Biden. That leaves 158 Electoral votes, of which, Trump would need 94% of them. Nearly running the table with everything from Pennsylvania to Ohio.
In Trump’s favor, we see 10 states or districts that are within a typical margin of error for him to win. But the needle that needs to be thread here, is twice as big as the 2016 comeback shocker.
CONCLUSION
While it is still very possible for Trump to win, it simply doesn’t seem likely for him to pull off. Against Clinton, he was battling an opponent grounded with similar unfavorable ratings. This led to Trump impressively taking many independents, holding Clinton to only 27% of Independent voters. Right now, Biden is leading in almost 90% of polls against this demographic.
Trump has also alienated many groups during his first term. He has lost massive ground among suburban women, white educated voters, overall white voters, young voters, and military voters. There is one major caveat to all of this.
While I write this, the President has tweeted against the Supreme Court decision to count votes in Pennsylvania. This is not surprising and I would expect it from any political candidate that doesn’t like a court ruling. However, in disagreeing with the ruling, he has fanned the flames of civil unrest, stating that “it will…induce violence in the streets.”
A leader worthy of the office would use the pulpit to quell any violence, any unrest, and attempt to bully and undermine the vote. We can disagree on legal votes and put them in the court. That is democracy in action. However, he is explicitly asking for violence.
If this is not shutdown. If we do not allow democracy in action, then there is no model, no prognosticator, no pundit that can accurately predict what could take place in the coming days.
Respect plurality. Respect our different worldviews.
Honor America: Vote. Peacefully.
FINAL 2020 PROJECTION MAP
