The Ghost of Tim Russert
Florida, Florida, Florida: This is where Biden could end it early.
Florida is one of a few swings states that are allowed to count early votes as they come in. This means that when polls close, within a half hour, we will see a major data dump of the vote — which may include some of the same day vote. Either way, Florida will likely be the first state that will get confidently projected by the networks.
Additionally, unlike Georgia, Arizona, and a number of other states, the demographics in Florida have not had a marked shift over the last decade. So, it allows us to extrapolate some comparisons to previous years.
We can say what we want about Hillary Clinton, but she underperformed. You could write a book on this phenomenon and there are a seemingly infinite number of reasons why this is the case. And compared to Obama in 2008 when he won the state, she massively missed in key counties.
These are the counties you’ll want to watch at around 8pm EST, and where Biden will need to be to potentially deal a knock out punch early on. If Biden wins Florida, there is no path to victory for Trump.
Charlotte is a relative large coastal county bordering Sarasota. They cast roughly 100K votes total, and Clinton was not able to keep pace with either of Obama’s turnout numbers. Biden does not need to win here, but if he just keep it relatively close, it will be a good sign.
Citrus and Putnam are small rural counties and the difference between Obama and Clinton show the trend of rural, blue-collar voters away from the old traditional union, working class roots of the Democratic Party to the academic elitist, educated suburban status of the party today.
Biden doesn’t need to do markedly better, but we are seeing him improve with white, blue-collar voters than typical Democrats, so he just needs to outpace Clinton here.
Flagler is a northern suburban county of Volusia, home to Daytona Beach. Obama won this county, but Hillary was mired in the 30’s. Biden has to improve on this number or else the suburbs in Florida are not pacing where they need to be this year.
Pasko is similar to Flagler, on the other side of the state, the northern suburban county to Tampa Bay. Obama barely lost this county while winning Florida in 2008. Clinton was spinning her wheels, unable to break 40% here. Biden doesn’t need to win, though he could when you look at the educational breakdown in this county.
Lastly, Volusia and Miami-Dade, two big counties that Obama won. Miami-Dade accounts for over 1M votes. Clinton increased her take from Obama in 2008. It is unlikely that Biden will keep pace with her in Dade, but he needs to stay at around 60% or else he’s losing too much of the Hispanic vote in Florida to take the state.
Keep your eye on these counties and the benchmarks that Biden needs to hit to potentially deliver a knock out blow before bedtime for most Americans.